Ceasefire – and now what?
Ceasefire – and now what?
The planned ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is based on questionable conditions; why it won’t last long and how things will proceed.
A balance sheet of genocide.
Reminder: The words marked in red are links leading to corresponding critique articles.
We also recommend the following articles on the topic of Palestine:
– “Resistance and Terror” – Which war is just? Which armed action is terrorism, and which is an act of resistance?
– “Before October 7” – What happened before October 7 and why the attack obviously didn’t come out of nowhere.
– “Contradiction: Combating Resistance” – This war cannot serve the extermination of Hamas because it makes Hamas more popular than ever.
– “The Role of Sexualized Violence” – Sexualized violence in Israeli prisons and its purpose.
– “The Great Mediator” – About China’s role in uniting the individual Palestinian organizations.
At the time of writing this article, the people in Gaza are in the final days of open, unhindered genocide by the Israeli occupation.
466 days—that’s 67 weeks and 11,180 hours—of open genocide.
During these 466 days, at least 3% of the total population in Gaza has been wiped out, although the official figure of 64,000 dead is now considered an underestimate even by mainstream media.
11,160 people are reported missing, 109,660 are injured.
60% of the killed were children, the elderly, and women.
466 Days, a Balance Sheet
The amount of violence that has taken place in Gaza since October 7, 2023 is so absurd that an objective description appears to be false.
Israel has dropped around 85,000 tons of bombs on Gaza in these 466 days—that’s more than the total amount of bombs in all of World War II.
In the first six days of bombing Gaza, Israel dropped as many bombs as the United States did over Afghanistan in a year—Gaza is 360 km² in size, smaller than Cologne, two and a half times smaller than Berlin, and Afghanistan is 1,813 (one thousand eight hundred thirteen) times larger than Gaza.
Over 700,000 children, about 30% of Gaza’s total population, have been displaced from their homes according to UNICEF. At least 14,500 children have reportedly died by April 2024, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health, with many more suffering from malnutrition and psychological trauma.
For 96% of children in Gaza, death feels “imminent.”
Numerous civilian shelters, including at least six UN schools and St. Porphyrius Church, have been destroyed in targeted attacks.
During the attack on the Engineers’ Building in Gaza City on October 31, 2023, at least 106 people were killed, including 34 women and 54 children—that is a war crime.
According to Oxfam, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened catastrophically since October 2023 due to the complete cutoff of food and water, with a general blockade since 2007.
The blockade of food and water has affected two million people, with hunger being deliberately used as a weapon—that is a war crime.
Civilian surrendering with white flags, including women and children, have been and are being deliberately shot.
The executions via drone strikes and targeted bombings were conducted using, among other things, imprecise AI systems, about which only Israeli whistleblowers reveal.
This AI monitors what a person posts on social media, who is near them, and who is in their contacts; based on this data, a number is assigned—if this number is too low, they must die.
Another AI, “Where’s Daddy?”, informs drone pilots whether the target is at home—“where their presence is considered confirmation of their identity” (Time)—and here, they and anyone else possibly present must be killed.
On November 12, 2023, a woman and her child were executed by an Israeli sniper despite holding a white flag—this is a war crime.
Journalists were targeted—at least 116 media personnel have died by September 2024, making this the deadliest phase for journalists in the 21st century—war crimes.
Mass executions and mass abductions are extensively documented.
The family of the head of the Al-Jazeera office in Gaza was killed in a targeted bombing of the Nuseirat refugee camp (in the “Safe Zone” in northern Gaza at the time); his wife, daughter, son, and grandson died instantly.
According to a UN statement from December 2023, thousands of people, including children, have been detained, tortured, or disappeared without a trace.
Amnesty International classified these practices as crimes against humanity.
Reports from human rights organizations, media, and Palestinian witnesses document widespread sexual violence committed by Israeli soldiers, guards, and medical personnel against Palestinian children, women, and men. These abuses include rapes, gang rapes, sexualized torture, and mutilation. In February 2024, UN experts reported at least two cases where Palestinian women were raped by male Israeli soldiers. Boys and men have also been raped and tortured, including in the Sde Teiman detention camp, where some victims died from the effects of torture.
In June 2024, prisoners from Sde Teiman reported that Israeli forces inserted “hot metal rods” and “electric sticks” into their bodies, resulting in at least one death. Another horrific report described prisoners being raped by dogs.
A report by the Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem from August 2024 described the Israeli prison system as a “network of torture camps” and documented systematic mistreatment, torture, and sexual assaults on Palestinian prisoners. International media like The Guardian confirmed these allegations and reported similar testimonies.
Epistemological Break
What has been done and is being done to the people in Palestine is hard to describe because the absurdity of the suffering makes the facts difficult to believe.
A AI monitoring your social media, and among other things deciding whether you and possibly your family must die?
Rapes by dogs? By hot metal rods?
This article could span 20 pages listing only the sheer terror Israel has inflicted on people since October 7, or since the founding of the state.
It is not necessary, as it is now almost universally known how far Palestinian suffering extends—and yet, the world watched.
The damage this war has inflicted on the humanitarian façade of the Western world is the greatest since the Vietnam War.
More people than ever are disillusioned regarding the role of hegemonic Western states.
For millions of young people in Germany, the last 466 days marked the first step toward politicization; German streets have not seen such massive, cross-organizational protests in decades—the immense suffering of the people in Gaza has, at least in some segments of the left scene, brought influx and unity.
Just our content on Palestine has convinced many people in the last 466 days to engage leftist activism.
Gaston Bachelard introduced the term “epistemological break” decades ago, describing a radical shift in understanding or the structure of knowledge—many people have experienced an epistemological break regarding capitalism, Israel, the United States, and global institutions in the last 466 days.
Studies suggest that the US Democrats’ inaction regarding Palestine, along with the voter abstention of many young people, allowed Trump to win the election.
The world, and its understanding, is radically different than before October 7, 2023.
What is the deal, and why now?
The first phase of the agreement (starting Sunday, January 19) which is set to last six weeks, includes a limited prisoner exchange, partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid to the enclave.
Hamas will release 33 Israeli prisoners, including women, children, and civilians over 50 years old, who were captured during the attack on October 7, 2023.
In return, Israel will release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners, including some with life sentences.
Simultaneously, Israel will withdraw its troops from the populated areas of Gaza into zones up to 700 meters inside the border with Israel.
Additionally, Israel will allow civilians to return to their homes in the besieged northern Gaza and permit increased humanitarian aid of up to 600 trucks per day—it’s worth noting how absurd it is that humanitarian trucks have been restricted so far.
Wounded Palestinians will be allowed to leave for medical treatment, and the Rafah crossing to Egypt is expected to open seven days after the start of the first phase (January 26).
The Israeli forces will reduce their presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza, and withdraw completely within 50 days after the agreement comes into effect.
The details of the second and third phases will be negotiated during the first phase.
If the conditions for a second phase are met, Hamas will release all remaining living prisoners, mainly male soldiers, in exchange for further release of Palestinians from Israeli prisons.
In the second phase, Israel will also begin a full withdrawal from Gaza.
The third phase involves handing over the bodies of the remaining prisoners in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan under international supervision.
Currently, there is no agreement on who will govern Gaza after the ceasefire—the US has advocated for a reformulated Palestinian Authority that invites international partners to form a transitional government to operate critical services and oversee the territory.
Other partners, especially Arab states, would provide forces to ensure security in the short term.
For such a plan, support from Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, would be necessary, linking their backing to a pathway toward Palestinian statehood.
This remains a contentious point for Israeli lawmakers, despite Israel’s agreement in the 1990s Oslo Accords to a two-state solution. So far, Israel has proposed no alternative governance for Gaza.
While we welcome the agreement, the conditions are highly questionable.
Since October 7, Hamas has gained more forces than it has lost.
It is clear that the war in Gaza was never about the “extermination of Hamas,” as Netanyahu and others claim.
Surveys show that the “Al-Aqsa Flood” on October 7, 2023, increased support for Hamas among West Bank residents from 12% (September 2023) to “44% of people” (December 2023).
In March last year, 59% of people in Gaza and 64% in the West Bank supported Hamas remaining in power after the war (PCPSR).
Currently, due to genocide, opinion polls in Gaza are impossible, but it is clear that support for Hamas and the Al-Qassam Brigades has multiplied since October 7, 2023.
Hamas is more successful than ever—ironically, Hamas has won this war.
It has not only largely achieved its goal of raising awareness of Palestinian suffering on October 7, but it has also blocked Israel’s proclaimed goal: Hamas still exists, and it is bigger than ever.
It is also uncertain what a “reformed Palestinian Authority” (PA) would look like—the PA under Mahmoud Abbas is precisely the reason for Hamas’ success in Gaza.
Over 90% of Palestinians are dissatisfied with the PA under the democratically unlegitimized Mahmoud Abbas, viewing him as a “US-backed puppet.”
A “reformed Palestinian Authority” would have to be without Abbas, but the US and Israel will almost certainly block free elections in the West Bank, as any probable winner would serve Israel and US interests more obediently than Abbas.
In September 2024, the Fatah and Hamas, along with 14 other Palestinian organizations, signed the “Peking Declaration” under Chinese supervision—widely interpreted as “reconciliation” in the media.
The declaration called for the formation of a “national interim government for reconciliation” and preparations for elections in a united Palestinian state.
Palestinian organizations have already taken steps toward a reformed Palestinian autonomy—yet, this actual reform will under no circumstances be accepted by the occupying power.
A scientific study by PCPSR from September 2024 shows that although support for Hamas has decreased, “nonetheless, support for Hamas remains the highest among all Palestinian groups.”
With a reform of the PA, which is generally desirable, the occupiers will have to accept Hamas.
For Netanyahu, this is impossible.
As a fascist president of Israel, his power and support depend on clearly defining an external enemy.
64% of Israelis are dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s government—100% of capital representatives are more than satisfied.
Netanyahu has promised foreign capital interests access to parts of Gaza—an offer that has brought him 435 million euros from Germany since 2022 and 78 billion US dollars from the US.
He cannot allow his Israel to lose this war, especially with an international arrest warrant against him, and now having to tolerate a new Palestinian autonomy with high Hamas participation.
The material conditions of people in Gaza are worse than ever.
The people returning to the north of their homeland find nothing there—the vast majority of buildings are destroyed, and there is no humanitarian infrastructure.
66% of structures in Gaza are damaged or destroyed (UNOSAT), and every person in Gaza has lost friends or family:
“Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups, whether progressive or reactionary, are causes of the material conditions in Gaza and the West Bank.
They are understandable and not ghostly apparitions, as mainstream media portray—they are not incomprehensible terror.
Like other resistance movements, Hamas is primarily a reaction to the neglect of the PLO under Mahmoud Abbas, i.e., the opposite of accepting Israeli harassment, which it explicitly rejects, combining this with concrete rejection of the often progressive values of the PLO.
Since the debacle of the Oslo Accords, the Fatah and the PLO have appeared as inert in the face of ongoing aggression, including settlement expansion by Israel.
Blaming the PLO for Hamas is absurd, as the PLO itself is only the cause of division, which itself is a result of US capitalist aggression in the region between Jordan and the Mediterranean.
Nevertheless, to stay realistic; Hamas is not an organization acting out of pure maliciousness or “blind terror,” as some liberal media like Deutschlandfunk, NZZ, and others claim.
It is clear that Hamas’ success reflects the failure of the Oslo agreements and the PLO, especially serving the cause of revenge.”
This morning (January 16), the Israeli cabinet postponed the vote on the ceasefire.
The reason given is a “last-minute crisis” (Netanyahu) from Hamas, which apparently still wants to negotiate regarding some aspects of the prisoner exchange—a basis for negotiations that has nothing to do with the fundamental ceasefire agreement.
Meanwhile, Israel is trying to fill the last days of uncontrolled bombing “with as many war crimes as possible” (Othman Moqbel, CEO of Action For Humanity).
Since the ceasefire was announced, in less than a day, Israeli bombings have killed at least 80 Palestinians, including 20 children and 25 women.
Every additional day will bring about 100 more Palestinian dead, and by Sunday, at least 400 more Palestinians, many of them children, will have died.